18th May 2025
The Golden Cracks:
Strength in Brokenness
Crisis Decisions: Cutting Anchor Biases
During the 2009 "Miracle on the Hudson," Captain Sully had 90 seconds to decide between crashing into skyscrapers or landing on the river. His mind didn’t race through checklists—he relied on intuitive pattern recognition (Gary Klein’s Power of Intuition).
Here’s how to emulate that clarity in your crises:
Root Cause Analysis Toolkit
Ask yourself:
"What’s my biggest recent decision?"
"Did the outcome align with my goal?"
"What biases influenced me?" (e.g., anchoring on past choices)
"Would I reverse it knowing what I know now?"
"How can I reframe the consequences?"
Example: A startup founder ignoring sunk cost fallacy might keep funding a failing project. Instead, ask: "If I abandoned this today, what future opportunities would unlock?"
The Bounded Mind: Herbert Simon’s Liberation
Nobel laureate Herbert Simon revealed our minds are bounded processors—we can’tanalyze infinite data. Regret over "imperfect" decisions is futile; trade-offs are inevitable.
Biases: The Silent Saboteurs
Combat these mental traps:
Confirmation Bias: "What evidence would disprove my belief?"
Sunk Cost Fallacy: Know when to pivot.
Self-Serving Bias: Surround yourself with truth-tellers.
Framing Effect: Rephrase the problem: "How would my enemy view this?"
The Path Forward: Gold in Your Cracks
Next time you face a crisis:
Embrace vulnerability (it’s your kintsugi gold).
Simulate mentally: Run multiple scenarios before deciding.
Ask: "Does this align with my core objective?"
Act—then refine without regret.
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